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Heavy rains likely in Assam, Meghalaya: Monsoon in India

Weather Forecast Update News: After a brief lull, the Bay of Bengal arm of the south-west monsoon has stirred into action and entered north-eastern parts of the country and is set to bring heavy rains over Assam and Meghalaya over the next two days, the IMD said Thursday. “Southwest monsoon has further advanced into some parts of northwest Bay of Bengal, some more parts of northeast & east-central Bay of Bengal and most parts of Mizoram, Manipur and Nagaland,” the India Meteorological Department said.

Southwest monsoon has further advanced into some parts of northwest Bay of Bengal, some more parts of northeast & east-central Bay of Bengal and most parts of Mizoram, Manipur and Nagaland,” the India Meteorological Department said. On Wednesday, the monsoon had covered Bengaluru, Chikmagluru, and Karwar.

Under the influence of monsoonal westerly winds from the Arabian Sea over south peninsular India, the weather office has forecast fairly widespread rainfall over coastal and south interior Karnataka, Kerala, Mahe and Lakshadweep and over the next five days. It has also forecast isolated to scattered rains over Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, North Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal during next five days.

The Southwest monsoon will be normal and quantitatively be 103 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), according to the second stage Long Range Forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday.

Notably, it will be the seventh consecutive year when the country would receive normal rainfall during June to September months. Previously, India has recorded consecutive normal monsoons for 12 years between 1953 – 1964 and 1988 – 1999, four years between 1975 – 1978 , 2005 – 2008 and 2010 – 2013. After two deficient monsoons in 2014 and 2015, there have been six years of normal rainfall since 2016. This includes two consecutive above normal rainfall years recorded in 2019 (110 per cent of LPA) and 2020 (109 per cent of LPA).

Quantitatively the 2021 all India monsoon seasonal rainfall during 1 June to 30 September 2021 has been 87.0 cm against long period average of 88.0 cm based on data of 1961-2010 (99% of its Long Period Average (LPA)) Fig.1.

The southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the four homogeneous regions is Normal over Northwest India (96%) and central India (104%). Seasonal rainfall is below normal over East and Northeast India (88%) and above normal over South Peninsula India (111%).

Considering month to month rainfall variation over India as a whole, the season is very uniquely placed in the historical record for its distinct and contrasting month to month variation. The rainfall over the country as a whole was 110%, 93%, 76% and 135% of LPA during June, July, August and September respectively. With inputs from different sources.

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